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For a brief period, Trump appeared to adopt a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire talks, Trump eventually introduced considerable penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, via his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

This plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative actually compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump persists to view the war as a mere land disagreement, like handing Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would force the nation to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan sets no such constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and practices must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal includes Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of seized territory in the region to the government – why should the international community trust Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "strong joint military response" if Russia renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars vary from vague to troubling. The plan would not just block the nation alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the reassurance force, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not