Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
