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A mere two months prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the force he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.