Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
